That is the finding of new analysis published today by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) forecasting growth in the global EV market.
The research predicts that EV battery manufacturers will build enough plants to supply 35GWh by 2013. But demand from EV makers will reach just 18GWh by 2013, up from the current level of 2.4GWh.
"As batteries have a limited shelf life, it is unlikely that battery manufacturers will produce more than market demand. Instead, they will reduce output to match contracted demand," said BNEF.
An increase in supply would cause battery prices to fall from their current cost of $800‐1,000/kWh (£506-632), with costs potentially reaching around $350/kWh (£221) by 2020.
Ali Izadi‐Najafabadi, BNEF energysmart technologies analyst, said that as batteries currently account for up to 50 per cent of the cost of an EV, a fall in price would lower the overall cost of vehicles.
However, he warned it could also make business increasingly difficult for smaller pure‐play EV battery manufacturers.
"In the short term the larger, mainly Asian, conglomerates can cope with limited demand and compete by lowering prices, but smaller pure‐play battery makers will be left vying for an increasingly limited number of supply contracts," he said.
"For the latter group, other applications such as grid‐scale energy storage
will be a critical source of demand."
In related news, Brabus yesterday unveiled two new electric vehicles based on the Mercedes-Benz E-Class.
The first Brabus sedan based on the Mercedes-Benz E-Class will be called the Four-wheel-drive Full Electric, while the second sedan has been develop with a hybrid drive system and will be called the Technology Project Hybrid.
Boston-Power and its partner Protean Electric also confirmed yesterday that they will collaborate to provide lithium-ion battery systems and electric in-wheel motor solutions for Brabus.
Boston-Power said it will debut its new 1.2kWh battery in the cars. Dubbed Swing Medley, the battery is targeting manufacturers seeking to use liquid-cooled battery systems for high-power and commercial vehicles.
Per Önnerud, chief technology officer at Boston-Power, said the battery systems would help to deliver EVs for the luxury car buyer market.
"EVs must meet or exceed the expectations that luxury car buyers have for gas-powered vehicles," he said. "Brabus is internationally recognised for the quality and performance of its vehicles. Were pleased were working with such an innovative company in showcasing the kind of performance our Swing battery system can deliver in a full EV."
source: APEC-VC Korea
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