SEOUL, KOREA – After a long and somewhat boring tug of war on a candidate unification method, Cheol-soo Ahn bowed out of the presidential race. Ahn’s graceful exit was reminiscent of his decision to make a concession to Won-sun Park for the 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election which Park finally won.
Independent candidate Ahn announced that he would give up his candidacy at a press conference on November 23, giving Jae-in Moon the chance to become the single united candidate of the opposition side.
"I once told the people I would put everything on the line to produce one single united candidate who will square off against the candidate of the ruling Saenuri Party. I really hope for ushering in a new politics which enabled me to run for the presidential election,” Ahn said. “But I think that nothing is more important is than keeping my promise with people as a politician." Ahn said.
Ahn’s tough decision turned the Democratic United Party's Jae-in Moon into the sole major opposition candidate who can compete with the Saenuri Party's Geun-hye Park. Political observers said that Ahn made the decision after being embarrassed to see that his team’s negotiation with Team Ahn spiral into an all-out grapple.
Ahn first mentioned the possibility of conceding or withdrawing from the presidential race after he completed a Nov. 21 TV debate with Moon. At the begging of the debate, Moon directly proposed meeting Ahn to find a breakthrough to the stalled negotiation between the two sides on November 22. During a meeting on Nov. 22, Ahn asked Moon to bow out because Ahn was leading in a hypothetical electoral duel against Park. After Moon refused, Ahn appears to have decided that his only choice was to abandon his own aspirations to become the next president of Korea.
Even though he bowed out the presidential race, Ahn expressed his strong will to remain a career politician. "I really hope and wish for a new era and the reform of politics for the people," he said. "I respect and love people. I am really grateful to member of my team and volunteer workers for my camp,” misty-eyed Ahn said.
“I am really sorry to candidate Ahn and his supporters,” Moon said about Ahn's announcement. Moon added that he will place his top priority in a joint declaration for new politics, economic and welfare policies and policies on the unification of the Korean peninsula and diplomacy which he agreed on with Ahn.
The presidential race between Park and Moon stand for the confrontation of two former administrations, as Park is the eldest child of former military ruler Chung-hee Park and Moon helped former liberal President Moo-hyun Roh at Cheong Wa Dae as one of his closest aides.
With neither of the two taking a big lead over the other, public opinion surveys showed their head to head race was close to call. The Korea Society Opinion Institute conducted a public opinion survey on how voter feelings had changed since Ahn’s withdrawal. The survey results released on Nov. 25 showed 50.7% of former supporters of Ahn saying they will vote for Moon for president, and 26.4% of them switching for Geun-hye Park. Another 21.9% of the respondents refused to answer or said that they became undecided. When asked about whether they would support Park or Moon in a head to head race, 49.8% of them named Park. This gave her an 8.2% point lead over Moon, who drew 41.6% of votes.
On the effects of the final selection of an opposition candidate, 54.1% said they thought Park would still emerge as winner. About the outcome of the race after Ahn bowed out, 54.1% of all respondents said Park would win the election, while 31.6% forecasted that Moon would defeat Park.
Among people who backed Ahn before he gave up his aspiration to run for the presidency, 43.2% answered that they would favor Moon over Park It appears unlikely that supporters of Park and Moon will change their choice now that the opposition candidate has been finalized. 40.4% of Ahn’s supporters expressed their support for the DUP while 24.8% said that they would root for the Saenuri Party.
Therefore, it is now clear that the presidential election will hinge on the decision of the 21.9% of Ahn supporters who have not yet made up their minds. This group accounts for 8.3% of all voters. This group may decide the outcome of the election. Out of Ahn’s support base, 18.2% said they would take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being. This indicates that their decision will be subject to what and how Moon will do during his future campaign trail. Another 21.9% of former supporter of Ahn said that they remained undecided. On the other hand, 50.6% of them said that they did not want to see the Saenuri Party to continue to stay in power while 37.7% of them said that they had positive views on the extension of the current political power.
According to the results of a public poll by Media Research for KBS, Park and Moon obtained 46.8% and 44.1% approval ratings, respectively. 55.7% of the former supporters of Ahn answered that they supported Moon while 19.2%, Park. In addition, SBS and TNS Korea announced their survey results which were not so different from those of the Media Research poll. Their poll showed that Park and Moon recorded 43.4% and 37.6%, showing a 5.8% point gap within the margin of error.
Since public opinion polls showed that Park enjoyed a lead over Moon with the margins of error, Team Moon judges that they urgently need Ahn’s support for Moon in order to win the election. It was reported that on November 26, Ahn was taking rest in a provincial town for the third day after his announcement to give up his candidacy. So it is expected that Team Moon may start to suggest to Team Ahn that they cooperate to prevent the Saenuri candidate from winning the election. It is highly likely that Ahn will return to Seoul to take part in the ceremony to disband his campaign camp on November 27. “Although the unification process was far from being smooth, Ahn may deliver a message for cooperation to Moon as both sides have a joint goal of changing the political power,” said a member of Team Ahn.
On the other side, Hoi-chang Lee, a former president of the Liberty Forward Party while announcing his endorsement of Park. Lee’s decision may have a big impact on the results of the presidential election among people in the Chungcheong area and conservatives. “I made up my mind to express my support for Park as I have to a leftist regime from being born in order to protect the freedom and democracy of Korea,” Lee told reporters on November 24.
On November 25, the first day of the official registration of presidential candidates, Park launched her presidential bid in earnest. Park held a press conference under the title of “My Attitude Just before My Registration as Presidential Candidate” at her party headquarters in Yeoido in the morning. “I will receive the judgment of the people for the purpose of realizing a nation where people’s dreams are realized. Today, I will resign as a lawmaker,” Park said. “Unless I am elected as the President, I will finish my political career. I ask the people to give me the chance to serve the country as President."
