Ten years from now, Information Technology (IT) itself is likely to be considered like the history of clothing. Fifty years ago, commoners had to go to the tailor shop to purchase their clothes since clothes were only produced by a few experts. With the emergence of the sewing machine, however, some could make their own clothes, and others started their own individual shops in local alleys. But who uses sewing machines today The clothing manufacturing industry has progressed to the point where buying clothes from shops is more affordable, time saving, and offers more variety.
Hardware Development Era
The history of clothing is reminiscent of the history of IT. In the Mainframe Era, only a few scientists or professionals were allowed to use computing power. The history of computing hardware from the 1960s starts with a vacuum tube. By 1959, discrete transistors were considered sufficiently reliable and economical that they made further vacuum tube computers uncompetitive. Computer main memory slowly moved away from magnetic core memory devices to solid-state static and dynamic semiconductor memory, which greatly reduced the cost, size, and power consumption of computer devices. The cost of integrated circuit devices became low enough that eventually personal computers became widespread. Computing hardware has significantly improved that it has become a platform for users doing things other than computation, such as automation, communication, control, entertainment, and education.
OS Development Era
With this computing power, users started to create applications and services. Today, however, not many people try to create their own services since many different Web services are provided mostly for free. With the era of commercial computing, more and more secondary software was bundled in the operating system (OS) package, leading eventually to the perception of an OS as a complete user-system with utilities, applications such as text editors and file managers, and configuration tools. On the first computers, without an operating system, every program needed a full hardware specification to run correctly and perform standard tasks, and its own drivers for peripheral devices like printers and card-readers. The growing complexity of hardware and applications eventually made operating systems a necessity.
Networking Era and E-Commerce
Thus, we can predict the future of IT by tracing the future of clothing. IT itself will become a product in electronic marketing. Take a look at today’s electronic fund transfers, supply chain management, internet marketing, online transaction processing, electronic data interchange, inventory management systems, and automated data collection systems. IT itself is only the fabric in a clothing business. IT is one component of the million finished products that are on the market for users to choose and drag into their PCs.
For example, if anyone is asked to use a sewing machine in the future, the answer will probably be something like A) if the price of the fabric becomes affordable, B) if it takes less time than shopping, C) if I want a particular style that is quite difficult to find in the common market. Then, let's give a thought to the future of IT. A) The cost of computing is no longer a problem due to the commercialization of PCs B) The recent keyword is Mashup, which means it doesn't take much effort and time to customize one's applications and services. A) and B) are the essence of the current trend. Then, C) if the majority of users become eager to design their own applications or services to use, the keyword of next the major trend will be personalized, or prosumer.
And time is only ticking in one direction.
