2010 worldwide semiconductor market forecast
2010 worldwide semiconductor market forecast
  • Bang Jung-hyun
  • 승인 2009.12.25 01:44
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This report is based on IDC's worldwide semiconductor market forecast for 2010. According to the report, compared from this year's revenue, next year's semiconductor market will increase by 11% to 218.6 billion US dollars compared from this year's revenue, altogether expecting a double digit growth. The main two factors that contribute to such growth stem from the growth of PC and cell phone market. Major investments to PC, server, and storage sectors by top corporations will start later next year and will continue on for several more years. There is a positive outlook for the semiconductor supply chain inventory as it is replenished to a neutral point; however, next years' first quarter appears to be adjusted because there was a leap in the channel volume during the 3rd and 4th quarter. Moreover, when referring to the foundry market, this year's supply orders will decrease from the 3rd quarter, since the Micro Processor unit shipment far exceed the system shipments.

For the past years, the whole economy was troubled by continuous spending that evolved around China, where it served as the black hole that pumps most expenditure. To make things worse, United States' steep unemployment rate and poor consumer spending have hindered the world's market demand. Thus, next year's semiconductor consumer market looks pretty dim. In the case of the automotive market, it managed to survive under government subsidies but as the whole economy will concentrate on the recovery of real economy for 2010, it presumably will not take a favorable turn. On the other hand, there is a positive outlook towards big sectors such as, computing, wireless communication, and industrial semiconductor of 13 to 16% increase next year. Regards to the semiconductor equipment market, the growth of this sector will depend on the market's maturity and technological advancement. From the consumer's view point, the growth of digital camera market has passed the summit and the PMP market has been declining from early this year. Therefore, ICP expects that these factors will drag down the revenue of semiconductor market. On the flip side, LCD TV market will be in the center of consumer demand and other sectors like mobile internet device (MID) and solid state drive (SSD) will begin to grow in the IT industry.

Mobile PC market is central in the computing sector; mobile PC seized 60% of the most sale profit in the 6th quarter of this year. Besides, mini notebook style semiconductor market will reach an apex sales rate of more than 40% next year. Other fast growing sectors include 3 generation and 3.5 generation cell phones where 3.5G expects to hit 30% sales rate that of next year. All in all, for the next 5 years, the world's semiconductor market will have an increase of 7% each year and reach 291.7 billion US dollars in 2013.

The memory chip market recovered from 17% decrease in sale followed by a sharp reversal and gained 43.1 billion US dollars with only an 8% decrease. Unfortunately the average sales price (ASP) that stood strong for over two quarters declined this November but the ISP expects that it will rebound to a stable point early next year. Yet, the ISP predicts that for over two quarters of early next year, the general market will be unstable or its' supplies will be scarce if and only if the corporations do not invest enough and that converges with the demands of the season. Still, DRAM market will reach 24% growth, NAND market increasing by 12%, and the memory market as a whole reaching 18% growth will altogether make 50.3 billion dollar profit. However, when considering the cost of production decline, the manufacturers will increase their profits while the distribution industry and their stock company go through hard times in order to balance their lack of supplies. Currently, investment is not happening due to an accumulated deficit and semiconductor market will not be able to supply until later next year. At this point, the upgrading speed for products is slowing down and the orders for semiconducting devices will begin to loosen up from 2nd quarter next year.

In spite of all these depression, DRAM market is expected to lead the market. In terms of the sales growth, IDC does not view the PC market for 2010 as depressing or a total slump. Especially as the Intel Atom processors lay out an aggressive sales strategy in order to emerge from this depression and this combined with the Chinese government policies of expanding the distribution of PCs, the outcome will be a surge in notebook sales. More specifically, last year's notebook PC sales had 8% revenue but it increased to 30% this year in 3rd quarter. Then again, the supplies for DRAM product lines will stay below average making it impossible for its' sales to increase by two-digit. Apart from this year's demand for smart phones and Apple i-phones, NAND market did not glow in terms of demand. NAND prices were badly hurt when the Apple's demand decreased this year during the 4th quarter. It is to be foreseen that next year's seasonal appliances will begin to recover but the overall demand for NAND will not come out strongly like in the past as the digital camera and PMP devices be combined as a cell phone. The supply of SSD is being delayed because of NAND's continuous high price and HDD's aggressive pricing policies. This year's SSD device market records more than 50% revenue growth compared from last year, but from NAND's point of view, SSD has almost relegated because of their mini notebook trend.


worldwide semiconductor capital spending
worldwide semiconductor market

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