Kim Jong-un’s Misjudgment Could Trigger a Second Korean War
Kim Jong-un’s Misjudgment Could Trigger a Second Korean War
  • By Jung Yeon-tae (johnjung56@gmail.com)
  • 승인 2015.04.28 01:05
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Jung Yeon-tae, Chairman of the National Innovation Forum

Unlike crimes of passion, premeditated crimes are bound to be carried out when the opportunity presents itself. The more meticulously and thoroughly a crime is planned, the more likely it is to be put into action.

While crimes of passion have a higher chance of failure, premeditated crimes are more likely to succeed, wreaking greater havoc on the target. Cases in point are premeditated serial murder and, more specifically, the recent knife attack on the U.S. ambassador to South Korea Mark Lippert by Kim Ki-jong (a militant Korean nationalist).

Premeditated crimes are committed in a way that catches the target off guard. Potential perpetrators premeditating a crime won’t give up or put off their plans unless they know that their target has raised his or her guard against any possible attack, seeing the writing on the wall; and unless they come to a conclusion that their crimes would result in a failure in which they could be killed or put in harm’s way. This is a simple criminal psychology.

The same mentality applies to those who premeditate war. Hence it is just a matter of time before a carefully planned war actually breaks out.

As of now, North Korea is treading on treacherous ground, led by 32-year-old North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. No one near him is able to put a brake on his dictatorship.

Historically speaking, most of the war initiators were in their 20s or 30s because as people get old, their ways of thinking become rational enough not to start a war.

Kim Jong-un executed even his uncle Jang Song-thaek in cold blood under his well-crafted plan for high-profile leadership purges. Although China, North Korea's closest ally, tried to stop North Korea’s highest-profile leadership purge since Kim Jong-un took power, he pressed ahead with it. Kim Jong-un is radical and strong-willed, so he would dare to start a war against the South.

Preparing for war against South Korea for a long time, North Korea has sporadically carried out numerous large- or small-scale provocations, including the Cheonan sinking and the artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, both of which had been planned elaborately.

Kim Jong-un has ordered the Korean people’s army to complete its preparations for North Korea-led unification of the Korean peninsula by October 10. As the North’s such moves have sent up red flags for stake holders in the Korean peninsula, circumstantial evidence of the US, China and Japan preemptively taking action against Pyongyang’s possible full-scale provocation is emerging here and there.

Nevertheless, S. Korean politicians argue that informing the public of North Korea’s such attempts to go to war against the South would pour cold water on elections, social stability and the S. Korea economy. To make matters worse, S. Korean politicians snap back angrily at those who speak about the fear of North Korea’s possible all-out provocation, labeling them as scaremongers foolishly playing into the hands of North Korea.

This is really worrisome. Our neighboring countries are all worried about another war on the Korean peninsula, but we are so happy-go-lucky. The Korean political scene is packed with short-sighted politicians thirsty for political, personal gains, so few are sincerely concerned about the future of the nation.

They are no different from an ostrich sticking its head in the sand in an effort to hide after being chased by lions. They just don’t want to think about the final moment of their own death. This is the situation S. Korea people are facing now.

King Seonjo, who ruled in Korea between 1567 and 1608, turned a blind eye on numerous reports that the Japanese forces were putting the finishing touches on their preparations for invading Korea. Eventually, in 1592, Japan invaded Korea which had been left totally defenseless by its ruler King Seonjo and his courtiers. It seems that history is about to repeat itself on the Korean peninsula.

The stronger the belief that there would be no more war on the Korean peninsula and the more S. Koreans who believe so, the more likely the Korean peninsula is to suffer from a second Korea war.

In other words, when we choose to die, we will live ; when we choose to live, we will die.

In that sense, given S. Korean society’s prevalent aversion to verbalizing the fear of a second Korean war and the South’s peace-at-any-price principle towards inter-Korean relations, North Korean troops are more likely to cross the 38th parallel to blindside the South within this year.

Once a full-blown war is waged as a result of either Kim Jong-un’s miscalculation or his strong conviction that he would have the last laugh, it will result in causalities from hundreds of thousands to tens of millions, regardless of who wins the war, sending the economy plunging into an irreversible collapse.

What’s more, if unification of the two Koreas were led by North Korea, not so many S. Koreans would survive the war and probably regret having chosen to live in an ill-fated country in the first place.

Then, when would a second Korea war break out

According to Chinese fortune telling, October is the most likely month for warfare on the Korean peninsula. Thus, it is very odd that the deadline for the Korean people’s army to complete its preparations for unification of the Korean peninsula falls on October 10, whether it be a coincidence or not.

We’ve learned from experience that more funerals are held on certain days each month. There seems to be auspicious days and ominous days. In other words, some days seem to be ill-starred, ridden with bad energy.

This year is so inauspicious that small- or large-scale wars could frequently occur around the globe along with a greater possibility of frequent plane crashes, ship sinking or multiple-vehicle pileups.

In particular, the period from October 13 to November 6 is so inauspicious that we need to batten down the hatches. Specifically speaking, October 13, 19, 26 and November 6 are ill-starred days. Two o’clock in the morning (Monday) on October 19 is the worst.

Those who have studied the discipline of divination or fortune-telling would know why. The discipline of divination or fortune-telling, of course, talks about only possibilities, not facts.

How would a second Korea war pan out

Military experts argue that since the South is superior to the North in terms of the performance and functions of its state-of-the-art weaponry and has the US as its staunchest ally, North Korea would not dare to wage a war against the South.

It is true. For such reasons, North Korea has thus far carried out local provocations, stopping short of a full-scale war against the South. However, a carefully thought-out and strategic plan to start a war is bound to materialize when the tide serves.

A meticulously premeditated war means that North Korea is capable of ambushing South Korea, taking full advantage of its in-depth knowledge of the South’s weapons systems and their weaknesses. It is said that North Korea spies staying in the South have been passing secret data on S. Korea’s military strategies and vulnerabilities to Pyongyang in real time.

That’s why it is foolish to make an attempt at predicting who would win a second Korea war by simply weighing the South’s firepower against the North’s. Even if a nation boasts formidable firepower and a huge stockpile of cutting-edge weapons, they would become useless once the nation has been heavily hit by massive well-orchestrated preemptive strikes.

South Korea is no stranger to the power of a preemptive strike. We lost 46 sailors in the Chenonan sinking, in which the multimillion-dollar South Korean navy corvette Cheonan was sunk by a single North Korean torpedo attack. We should bear in mind that though the South’s armed forces are strong, well-though-out preemptive strikes could disable its military power instantly.

Suppose that thousands of North Korean drones carrying small amounts of explosives or a grenade flew into the South in the wee hours of the morning when everyone was asleep, consequently throwing South Korea’s armed forces into disarray and cutting off electricity and communication channels.

And then suppose that the South was bombarded relentlessly for two hours with artillery shells and medium-range ballistic missiles and thus major South Korean cities and major facilities were demolished.

Suppose that specially trained North Korea soldiers crossed the 38th parallel to attack the South while pro-North Korean groups took to the street in South Korea to cause a terrible wave of rioting and arson, what should or could South Korean troops, as well as S. Korea citizens, do in such mayhem

Such preemptive strikes could lead to horrific calamities, which could be much worse than the Sewol ferry disaster, which left over 300 people - mostly teenage students - dead or missing.

S. Korean political circles, the nation’s armed forces and its people all have to seriously worry about the likelihood of another full-scale war on the Korean peninsula and make preparations thoroughly and specifically.

By Jung Yeon-tae, Chairman of the the Innovation Forum for Nation


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