In the ever-evolving world of pharmaceuticals, the infectious diseases market is poised for remarkable growth, projected to surge at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% from 2023 to 2029, reaching a staggering $150 billion in annual sales by 2029. Spearheading this booming landscape are three juggernauts: Pfizer Inc, Gilead Sciences Inc, and GSK plc, collectively slated to capture a substantial 62% share of the total infectious disease drug sales between 2023 and 2029, as indicated by the insightful analysis of GlobalData.
Despite a substantial dip of 63.8% in the projected sales for COVID-19 drugs in 2023, the infectious disease drug market is expected to maintain its momentum in the foreseeable future. This growth can be largely attributed to the surging demand for HIV drugs and the consistently high sales of COVID-19 therapeutics.
Kevin Marcaida, a Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, shared his expert perspectives on this trajectory: While Pfizer Inc is projected to witness a 9.2% decline in annual sales from 2023 to 2029, this is mainly due to the easing pandemic pressures and the gradual relaxation of government COVID-19 vaccination programs. However, Pfizer Inc is poised to retain its dominant position in the infectious diseases market, chiefly due to the robust sales of its COVID-19 portfolio, spearheaded by the success stories of Comirnaty and Paxlovid. The strategic price increases in 2023 for the US market, combined with the persistent COVID-19 cases in emerging economies, will drive Comirnaty and Paxlovid to reach an awe-inspiring $122 billion in sales between 2023 and 2029.
Gilead Sciences Inc, on the other hand, is expected to witness steady and robust infectious disease sales growth of 12.4% from 2023 to 2029. At the heart of Gilead's success story lies the blockbuster small molecule drug, Biktarvy, indicated for the treatment of HIV. Since its initial approval in 2017, Biktarvy has consistently demonstrated remarkable efficacy and safety data. With its stellar track record, Biktarvy is poised to claim the crown as the best-selling drug in the infectious diseases segment, generating an estimated $92 billion in sales between 2023 and 2029.
Meanwhile, GSK plc stands tall with two blockbuster drugs: Shingrix and Dovato. Shingrix, a vaccine approved by the FDA in 2017 for the prevention of Shingles, has gained considerable momentum with subsequent approvals in 20 countries and a recent approval in Japan in June 2023. It is expected to amass a substantial $41 billion in total sales between 2023 and 2029, cementing its position as a significant player in the market.
In parallel, Dovato, a small molecule drug indicated for the treatment of HIV, has emerged as a dependable choice since its first approval in the US in 2018. With subsequent approvals in the EU, Japan, and China, the drug is forecast to achieve impressive sales of $20 billion between 2023 and 2029.
Kevin Marcaida emphasized the pivotal role played by Pfizer Inc, Gilead Sciences Inc, and GSK plc in driving the infectious disease market's remarkable growth. These three industry leaders, armed with their innovative products, are perfectly poised to capitalize on the vast opportunities that lie ahead in the dynamic and ever-evolving landscape of infectious diseases.
